From Gdansk on the Baltic coast to Lublin in the south east, gas wells are appearing across Poland. They are part of what some believe could be a revolution in Europe’s energy industry and, in particular, Poland’s energy supply. For Poland is thought to have Europe’s largest reserves of unconventional gas. If captured, this gas could end Poland’s reliance on Russia – supplier of about 70% of its gas – and the Polish government would find it less challenging to phase out coal, a dirtier fuel that is a mainstay of the economy.

The first signs of gas are emerging. The US company BNK Petroleum has reported “numerous gas shows” at one of its three concessions in northern Poland. Late last year, amateur pictures captured gas flaring at the head of a well drilled by Lane Energy in the Gdansk region, though the company has not confirmed the find.

The Polish Geological Institute will release a survey of the prospective fields of shale gas – known as ‘plays’ in industry jargon – in September. But many of the big groups in the energy industry, late to spot shale gas in the US, which is the biggest producer and technological leader, are getting in early: ConocoPhillips, Chevron, ExxonMobil and Marathon Oil are among the 25 companies to have received the 85 concessions handed out so far by the Polish government.

The early indications are positive: the deposits are large, of high quality and relatively close to the surface. But chief executives are cautious. They do not cite the spectacular figures bandied about over the past year, that Poland may have deposits totalling anywhere from 1.5 trillion to 3 trillion cubic metres.

Nor do they employ the excited tone adopted by Prime Minister Donald Tusk after the US’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated on 5 April that reserves may be larger still, at 5.3 trillion cubic metres, which would make Poland’s reserves the 11th largest in the world and the largest in Europe. “The deposits of shale gas have exceeded our most daring expectations,” Tusk said.

But optimism nonetheless seeps out of comments by senior figures in the industry. “The gas that is potentially in Polish shale really could transform the Polish energy market. But we would not risk saying that there is gas for 50 or 300 years. That would not be sensible – yet,” Tomasz Maj of Talisman Energy told European Voice.

“I think it will take about five years for the Polish economy to feel the impact of shale gas,” said Maj, whose Canadian-owned company has three concessions in northern Poland.

“We know how much shale rock there is, but we don’t know how much shale gas there is going to be,” said Wieslaw Prugar, the chief executive of Orlen Upstream. His company has five concessions. “In some locations, the geology won’t be a problem; there will be more problems on the surface. And vice versa.”

The test of public opinion

Many difficulties lie ahead, from acquiring drilling equipment to maintaining public support. Public opinion has not yet been tested, either by pollsters or by accidents. However, Poles are seen as receptive to the economic and strategic arguments in favour of shale gas, and, thanks to the prevalence of coal-mining, as being relatively well-disposed to mining generally. The industry is also lucky that the ‘plays’ chiefly lie in less densely populated areas.

But the mood could change. There has been local opposition at a find in a concession owned by BNK Petroleum. Many of the potential sites are in protected areas. Then there are health concerns. Extracting gas from shale involves pumping large amounts of water, chemicals and sand in order to ‘fracture’ the shale, a flaky rock, so that gas trapped inside is released. Critics argue that the method can lead to contaminated water sources and leaked methane.

The support of Poland’s political class will be tested by elections later this year, but so far the whiff of gas has caused a rare outbreak of consensus, with politicians presenting shale gas as nothing less than a revolution that will allow Poland to break away from Russia, or at least force it to lower its prices. The government has responded by, as the EIA states, putting in place “very attractive fiscal terms for gas development” to provide incentives for business.

This adds to the attractions of doing business in a market that is large, an economy that is growing fast and a country that is anxious to ensure its energy independence.

Much more needs to be done, though. The EIA report indicated that “infrastructure and regulatory issues remain as barriers” – another way of saying that Poland needs a more developed gas industry, a more integrated pipeline system, more storage capacity, and a more liberal and competitive regime for extraction, processing and distribution.

The prospect of gas could catalyse efforts to address these weaknesses. “The very search for gas will be beneficial to our economy, due, for example, to the access to know-how,” Prugar said.

While there are plenty of incentives for business and the Polish government to act, some Polish politicians believe that the EU needs to become more involved, in particular to help the development of infrastructure. At a recent conference in Warsaw on shale gas, contributors suggested that the discovery of shale gas should force the EU to reconsider the economic rationale that underpins parts of its energy policy.

Radoslaw Sikorski, Poland’s foreign minister, argued last year that “non-conventional gas should be at the centre of the EU debate about energy security”. So far, the European Commission is treating it as a complementary, secondary source. Günther Oettinger, the European commissioner for energy, told MEPs on 7 March that imports of “conventional gas” would remain more important to energy security “in the coming decades”.

“I would like to encourage the Commission to show more enthusiasm in its attitude to the treasure that shale gas may turn out to be,” was the response of Boguslaw Sonik, a Polish centre-right MEP.

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Although the development of unconventional gas does not appear in the agenda produced by Poland for its presidency of the Council of Ministers, the EU can expect to hear more such opinions from politicians in Poland.

But what will happen in Poland if, or when, public complaisance fractures, and when questions are asked about how the state is reforming the energy sector and how the revenues are being spent? Gas prospectors may be hopeful, but Polish enthusiasm may be tempered when the gas, and revenues, begin to flow.

Wojciech Kosc is a journalist based in Warsaw.

Correction: The example of public opposition has been corrected, to refer to a BNK Petroleum concession.