GOP Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote The Hill’s Morning Report – Trump’s public standing sags after Floyd protests GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police MORE’s lead over Rep. Beto O’RourkeBeto O’RourkeBiden will help close out Texas Democrats’ virtual convention: report O’Rourke on Texas reopening: ‘Dangerous, dumb and weak’ Parties gear up for battle over Texas state House MORE (D) in the closely watched Texas Senate race has shrunk to 5 percentage points in a new poll.
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Cruz is leading O’Rourke among likely voters, 51 to 46 percent, according to the Quinnipiac University Poll released Monday, with 3 percent of voters remaining undecided.
The narrow lead marks a tightening in the Senate race from an Oct. 11 Quinnipiac poll, which found Cruz leading O’Rourke by a 9-point margin, 54 to 45 percent.
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Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a statement that O’Rourke remained “within striking distance,” but “time is running out” if he is going to overtake Cruz.
“Sen. Cruz is ahead due to his winning the ‘gender gap.’ He wins men 56 – 39 percent, while Representative O’Rourke can manage only a 52 – 45 percent edge among women,” Brown added.
Only 2 percent of likely voters who said they have decided whom they will support in next week’s midterm election told Quinnipiac that they could change their mind.
The new poll was conducted from Oct. 22 to 28 and includes surveys of 1,078 likely Texas voters. The poll has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
Cruz’s lead in the Quinnipiac poll is narrower than his 6-point lead in a RealClearPolitics average of recent polling.
Democrats face a narrow path in an increasingly uphill battle of winning back the Senate majority.
In addition to keeping 10 seats in states won by Trump, including some races in which Democratic incumbents are behind in the polls, they would need to pick up two seats currently held by a Republican senator.
Democrats have focused their efforts on winning seats in Arizona and Tennessee, where GOP Sens. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeGOP lawmakers stick to Trump amid new criticism Kelly holds double-digit lead over McSally in Arizona: poll Trump asserts his power over Republicans MORE (Ariz.) and Bob CorkerRobert (Bob) Phillips CorkerGOP lawmakers stick to Trump amid new criticism Trump asserts his power over Republicans Romney is only GOP senator not on new White House coronavirus task force MORE (Tenn.) are retiring.
They are also hoping to defeat Sen. Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerOn The Trail: Democrats plan to hammer Trump on Social Security, Medicare Lobbying World Democrats spend big to put Senate in play MORE (R-Nev.), who is the only Republican senator up for reelection in a state won by Democratic presidential nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE in 2016.