BERLIN — This weekend, the German chancellor, the U.S. vice president and dozens of foreign and defense ministers will mingle with other political big shots at the grandiose Bayerischer Hof hotel in the Bavarian capital.
Just another year at the Munich Security Conference? Not really.
For much of its history stretching back more than 50 years, the annual conference — once dubbed a “transatlantic family gathering” for NATO member countries — was where the West met to discuss the rest of the world.
This year, relations between the U.S. and Europe, and among European states, are at the center of discussion.
“There are, unfortunately, many more open questions today than just a couple of years ago,” said Wolfgang Ischinger, the conference chairman.
With Donald Trump in the White House, Europe is bracing for an unpredictable U.S. administration that disdains multinational alliances. At the same time, the rise of far-right populism and Euroskeptic movements, as well as Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, has thrown the bloc into the worst crisis in its history.
“We just need one more election to go wrong, and the EU will no longer be what it is today,” Norbert Röttgen, an MP from Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats who chairs the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee, told POLITICO.
Here are five things to watch this weekend:
1. Merkel meets Team Trump
Munich is the first opportunity for the Trump administration to set out its foreign policy priorities before an international audience. Vice President Mike Pence will also hold talks with Merkel — the first meeting between the German chancellor and a senior member of the new administration.
Merkel and Trump had a bumpy start. The U.S. president has repeatedly criticized the chancellor for her open-door policy during Europe’s 2015 refugee crisis. For her part, Merkel has offered Trump only lukewarm congratulations on his election victory and openly criticized his entry ban on people from seven Muslim-majority countries, currently blocked by the U.S. courts.
One Trump statement has enraged Berlin more than any other: His endorsement of Brexit and his prediction that other EU members will follow the U.K.’s example.
On Monday, conference chairman Ischinger called the statement “a declaration of war — without weapons.” Meanwhile, Merkel’s minister of state for Europe urged other EU members not to get involved in any “special deals” with the Trump administration.
Expect host country Germany to send out a message from Munich to Washington along the lines of: “Hands off the EU!”
2. Doing defense differently
How can the EU demonstrate to its own estranged citizens and the wider world that a unified bloc brings added value to its people?
Ever since the United Kingdom voted to leave, the idea of closer European defense cooperation has emerged as a way to re-energize the EU. The bloc has proposed various initiatives, from setting up an operational headquarters in Brussels to implementing a European defense fund and kick-starting defense-related research.
Those initiatives may seem more appealing to European nations because Trump has suggested they might not always be able to count on the U.S. to defend them through NATO. Earlier this week, Trump’s new Defense Secretary James Mattis echoed his boss’s warnings at a meeting with NATO allies in Brussels, telling them: “Americans cannot care more for your children’s future security than you do.”
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Officials also hope the U.K.’s exit from the EU — although politically painful — will make things easier as London was the major brake on defense cooperation within the bloc.
However, across Europe, there are still many reasons — both financial and political — that prevent a large number of EU countries from increasing military spending and pushing forward cooperation. Against that backdrop, expect Germany to press ahead this weekend — likely joined by France and other like-minded partners — to implement what’s known in EU jargon as “permanent structured cooperation.” This means building an alliance among those EU countries willing to work more closely together on military matters.
3. A European Security Union?
Calls for closer European cooperation will also echo around the Bayerischer Hof when it comes to domestic security and counter-terrorism.
“An area in which we Europeans need to act collectively to win back credibility is security policy,” said Röttgen. “This is the dominant topic, now and in the years to come.”
The conservative politician suggested a security cooperation initiative spearheaded by France and Germany.
“We have to work towards something like a security union, starting as a Franco-German [initiative], develop it further on the basis of inter-governmental cooperation and bring it to the European level at some point,” he said.
The European Commission, which will be represented in Munich by high-ranking officials such as foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, has talked about creating a “security union.” But the Commission may not be too happy about Röttgen’s suggestion, which could push Brussels towards the sidelines.
4. Le Pen’s prospects
The No. 1 concern for many German government officials when it comes to European stability is not Trump’s presidency. Or even Germany’s general elections in September. It’s the presidential election in France, held over two rounds in late April and early May. On stage and behind the scenes, it will be a hot topic in Munich.
For years, Europe has been beset by a war on its Eastern flank in Ukraine and economic despair in the South. If French far-right leader Marine Le Pen becomes president, officials believe this will lead to a substantial political crisis in Western and Central Europe as well.
At the moment, polls suggest Le Pen will qualify for the second-round run-off but then lose heavily to a mainstream candidate. But Trump’s win and the victory of the Leave campaign in Britain’s EU referendum last year showed that it is unwise to rule out upset victories.
Röttgen said he did not expect Le Pen to win but France and Germany would not be able to work effectively together if she did. “This shows you how close the European project stands to the edge of the precipice,” he said.
“If the elementary relationship between Germany and France breaks apart, this means the end of Europe,” said Josef Janning, head of the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.
5. … and that’s not everything.
OK, we said 5 things — but if you’ve read this far, you probably have the appetite for a few more:
Ukraine — Both Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov are expected to be in Munich.
Turkey — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s planned constitutional changes, which would grant him broad new powers, have prompted harsh criticism abroad and put a strain on relations with the West. Erdoğan’s administration is represented in Munich by Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım.
Asia — At the last minute, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi confirmed he would attend the conference — likely because of the large presence of U.S. officials, according to conference chairman Ischinger. With Trump taking a tough line on trade with Beijing and tensions flaring between the U.S. and China over a recent North Korean missile launch, American and Chinese officials will have plenty to talk about — if they take the opportunity to do so.