The 2020 election is more than a year away, but some Republican lawmakers are pessimistic about their chances of winning back the House.
President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE’s approval ratings in key swing states are under water. Infighting on the GOP leadership team and a notable retirement have raised questions about the party’s campaign strategy.
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And Republicans acknowledge that many of the at-risk Democratic freshmen in Trump districts are going to be difficult to beat as they resist calls for impeachment and stay focused on kitchen-table issues such as health care and infrastructure.
“It’s going to be tough. [The Democrats] have really good majority-makers — [Reps.] Abigail SpanbergerAbigail Davis SpanbergerGun control group rolls out House endorsements The Hill’s Campaign Report: DOJ, intel to be major issues in 2020 Human Rights Campaign rolls out congressional endorsements on Equality Act anniversary MORE, Dean PhillipsDean PhillipsSmall businesses receive much-needed Paycheck Protection Program fixes House passes bill to grant flexibility for small business aid program Bipartisan senators introduce bill to make changes to the Paycheck Protection Program MORE, Max RoseMax RoseDe Blasio: Robert E Lee’s ‘name should be taken off everything in America, period’ The Hill’s Coronavirus Report: New America’s Anne-Marie Slaughter says countries around world are deciding not to trust US; All eyes on New York as city begins phased reopening Max Rose calls for National Guard to be deployed to NYC to enforce curfew MORE. They’ve got some good members that know what they’re doing. They seem to not be embracing the crazy,” said one senior GOP lawmaker who requested anonymity.
“There is a path for us to take it back, but they have good candidates. They have money they are still raising left and right,” the source added. “You just don’t know if the intensity of our voters will be enough, because [Democrats] are still engaged.”
In the first three months of this year, the House Democrats’ campaign arm hauled in more than $32 million, while the GOP’s campaign operation raised $25 million.
Another GOP lawmaker said it will be hard for Republicans to make the case to voters they deserve the majority when they failed to repeal ObamaCare or fund Trump’s border wall in the last Congress when they controlled all the levers of the government.
“It would be very difficult to take back the majority when most people see it as a squandered opportunity when Republicans had the majority,” the second GOP lawmaker told The Hill.
Democrats rode an anti-Trump wave in last fall’s midterm elections, picking up a net 40 seats and winning the House majority for the first time in eight years.
Democrats now enjoy a 235-198 advantage, meaning Republicans need to win a net of 20 seats to win back control of the House in 2020.
GOP leaders maintain they can pull it off, pointing to the low unemployment rate, strong economy and defeat of ISIS under Trump. They also believe that liberal bomb throwers like Reps. Rashida TlaibRashida Harbi TlaibHow language is bringing down Donald Trump Defunding the police: Put it to a vote McEnany, Ocasio-Cortez tangle over ‘Biden adviser’ label MORE (D-Mich.), Ilhan OmarIlhan OmarHow language is bringing down Donald Trump Biden, Democrats seek to shut down calls to defund police McEnany, Ocasio-Cortez tangle over ‘Biden adviser’ label MORE (D-Minn.) and Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-CortezAttorney says 75-year-old man shoved by Buffalo police suffered brain injury How language is bringing down Donald Trump Highest-circulation Kentucky newspaper endorses Charles Booker in Senate race MORE (D-N.Y.) are driving the Democratic Party too far to the left, alienating middle-of-the-road voters.
In a private gathering at the Capitol Hill Club, National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chairman Rep. Tom EmmerThomas (Tom) Earl EmmerHouse Republicans voice optimism on winning back the House following special election victories GOP pulls support from California House candidate over ‘unacceptable’ social media posts Trump campaign launches new fundraising program with House Republicans MORE (Minn.) told rank-and-file Republicans on Wednesday they have a “real opportunity” to pick up seats and take back the lower chamber.
Emmer specifically singled out the Orange County seat of freshman Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) as a prime pickup opportunity after she endorsed this week the idea of launching an impeachment inquiry into the president, sources in the closed-door meeting said.
“I think there’s a great chance we’re going to take the House back. I think Trump’s well-positioned to win reelection, too,” said Rep. Steve ChabotSteven (Steve) Joseph ChabotOhio is suddenly a 2020 battleground House passes bill to grant flexibility for small business aid program Ohio Democrat Kate Schroder wins primary to challenge Steve Chabot MORE (R-Ohio), who beat back a tough challenge from Democrat Aftab Pureval last fall.
“The bottom line is the country is better off under his leadership,” Chabot said.
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But the GOP leadership team has experienced turmoil in recent weeks that has rattled the Republican conference. Emmer, the NRCC chairman and a close ally of Minority Leader Kevin McCarthyKevin Owen McCarthyHouse Republicans hopeful about bipartisan path forward on police reform legislation Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names McConnell: States should make decision on Confederate statues MORE (R-Calif.), privately clashed with GOP Conference Chairwoman Liz CheneyElizabeth (Liz) Lynn CheneyOvernight Defense: Senate confirms US military’s first African American service chief | Navy to ban display of Confederate flags | GOP lawmakers urge Trump not to cut troops in Germany Republicans urge Trump to reject slashing US troop presence in Germany Cheney blasts Trump move to draw down troops in Germany: ‘Dangerously misguided’ MORE (Wyo.) and two other GOP leaders last week over whether they were pulling their weight in raising money for the party.
That fight spilled out into the public, an embarrassing episode for McCarthy’s leadership team.
Then came another blow: Rep. Susan BrooksSusan Wiant BrooksDemocrat Christina Hale and Republican Victoria Spartz to face off in House race in Indiana Key races to watch in Tuesday’s primaries The Hill’s Campaign Report: More Republican women are running for House seats MORE (R-Ind.), whom Emmer had hand-picked to lead candidate recruitment in the 2020 cycle, abruptly announced she was retiring from Congress. Brooks, one of only 13 GOP women in the House, had specifically been brought on to help recruit more women to run for Congress.
In Wednesday’s campaign meeting, Brooks stood up in front of colleagues and told them her retirement would allow her to spend more time traveling the country to recruit candidates and raise campaign cash.
“The flip side,” one Republican said after the meeting, “is that she’s the recruitment chair and she’s leaving. That is a negative.”
A third House GOP lawmaker who asked for anonymity suggested the NRCC and broader party had done little to shore up support among suburban women, who fled from Trump and the GOP in droves during the disastrous 2018 election.
“What lessons have we learned from 2018, when we got shellacked in the suburbs? What have we done to make up ground there? Are we appealing to those suburban women?” the third GOP lawmaker asked. “I think we haven’t done much here perception-wise with Trump to bring in some of those voters.”
Many in the GOP fear that, just like last fall, Trump will be an albatross around the necks of congressional candidates. Recent polls show Trump trailing former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE and other Democratic hopefuls in battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
Three polls even showed Trump trailing Biden in Texas.
“In 2016, Trump won Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania … those are bellwethers,” said the third GOP lawmaker. “Trump’s numbers in those states today are in trouble.”
Still, other Republicans cautioned that it’s far too early to panic. While many agree Biden would be a strong match-up against Trump, Democrats could eventually nominate a liberal like Sens. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) or Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.), which Republicans argue could help them flip the House.
“Elections aren’t referendums; they’re choices,” said Rep. Tom ReedThomas (Tom) W. ReedThe Athletic lays off 46 staffers as pandemic hits media industry A quiet, overlooked revolution in congressional power Bipartisan Senate group offers new help to state, local governments MORE (R-N.Y.), co-chairman of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. “So, if you have the choice of President Trump delivering for you on the economy versus these [Democrats] who want to undo everything, it’s a totally different dynamic.”
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